100 SMA Holds The Key For Next Bitcoin Rally Above $12K: Here’s Why
Bitcoin found support near $11,120 and started an upward move against the US Dollar. However, BTC must break $11,650 and the 100 hourly SMA to start a fresh rally.
- Bitcoin is slowly recovering from the $11,150 and $11,200 support levels.
- The price is facing a couple of hurdles near the $11,600 and $11,650 levels.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $11,620 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The pair must clear the $11,650 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average to start a fresh rally.
Bitcoin Price is Facing Hurdles
Recently, we saw a sharp decline in bitcoin price below the $11,500 support level against the US Dollar. BTC even traded below the $11,200 support level and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.
A swing low was formed near $11,130 and the price started a slowly and steady recovery wave. It recovered above the $11,200 and $11,400 levels. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $12,084 high to $11,130 low.
Bitcoin price even climbed above the $11,500 pivot level, but it is facing a strong resistance near $11,650. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $11,620 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Bitcoin price trades above $11,200. Source: TradingView.com
The trend line is close to the 100 hourly SMA, which is preventing an upside break above the $11,650 level. The price is also struggling to close above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $12,084 high to $11,130 low.
If there is a successful break above the trend line, the 100 hourly SMA, and $11,650, the price is likely to start a strong rally. The next resistance is near the $11,800 level, above which the bulls are likely to aim more upsides above the $12,000 and $12,050 levels.
Fresh Decline in BTC?
If bitcoin fails to clear the trend line, the 100 hourly SMA, and $11,650, then there are chances of a fresh decline. An initial support is seen near the $11,400 level.
The main support is now near the $11,120 level, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline below the $11,000 support. In the mentioned case, the price could even test $10,500 (as discussed in yesterday’s analysis using the daily chart).
Hourly MACD – The MACD is about to move into the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently sliding below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $11,400, followed by $11,120.
Major Resistance Levels – $11,650, $11,800 and $12,000.