TA: Bitcoin Correcting Gains, Why 100 SMA Could Trigger A Larger Decline
Bitcoin price formed a new yearly high close to $20,000 before correcting lower against the US Dollar. BTC could accelerate its decline if there is a clear break below the 100 hourly SMA.
- Bitcoin is currently correcting lower below the $19,500 and $19,000 levels.
- The price is approaching a key support at $18,350 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $18,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The pair could decline heavily if it fails to stay above the 100 hourly SMA and $18,200.
Bitcoin Price is Grinding Lower
There was an upside extension in bitcoin price above the $19,500 resistance. BTC even surpassed the previous swing high and traded close to the $20,000 barrier. However, there was no test of $20,000 and the price reacted to the downside.
There was a sharp decline of more than 5% and the price traded below the $19,000 level. Bitcoin found support near the $18,100 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A swing low was formed near $18,111 before the price corrected higher.
There was a recovery above $19,000, but the bears protected the $19,500 zone. A high is formed near $19,512 and the price is currently declining. It is trading below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent recovery from the $18,111 swing low to $19,512 high.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
It seems like there is major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $18,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the downside, the price is approaching a key support at $18,350 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent recovery from the $18,111 swing low to $19,512 high is also near $18,400. A downside break below the $18,350 support and the 100 hourly SMA could spark a larger decline. The next major support could be $18,000 or $17,850.
Fresh Increase in BTC?
If bitcoin remains stable above the $18,350 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average, it could attempt a fresh increase. An initial hurdle for the bulls is near the trend line and $18,800.
The first major resistance is near the $19,000 level. A clear break above the $19,000 level could pump the price towards the $19,500 resistance level.
Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly losing momentum in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently moving higher towards the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $18,350, followed by $18,000.
Major Resistance Levels – $18,800, $19,200 and $19,500.