TA: Why Bitcoin Price Could Correct Sharply If It Breaks 100 SMA

Bitcoin price attempted an upside break above the $19,500 resistance against the US Dollar, but failed. BTC could decline sharply if there is a clear break below the 100 hourly SMA.

  • Bitcoin is currently struggling to clear the key $19,500 resistance level.
  • The price is likely to continue lower below $19,150 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $19,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair is likely to accelerate lower if there is a clear break below $19,150 and the 100 hourly SMA.

Bitcoin Price is Showing Bearish Signs

There was a fresh increase in bitcoin price above $19,250 and $19,400. BTC made another attempt to clear the $19,500 resistance, but it failed to gain bullish momentum.

A high was formed near $19,586 and the price is currently trading above the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below the $19,400 level. The price even traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $18,851 low to $19,586 high.

Bitcoin is now trading near the $19,300 level. An initial support is near the $19,220 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $19,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $18,851 low to $19,586 high. The next key support is near the 100 hourly simple moving average at $19,120. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, the 100 hourly SMA, and $19,000, the price could start a significant downside correction. The next major support could be $18,500.

Upside Break in BTC?

If bitcoin manages to stay above the trend line support and the 100 hourly simple moving average, it could rise above $19,400. The main resistance is near the $19,500 level.

The price must gain bullish momentum above the $19,500 level and the recent higher. A proper close above the $19,500 level could lead the price towards the main $20,000 barrier.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently just below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $19,200, followed by $19,150.

Major Resistance Levels – $19,400, $19,500 and $19,800.