Efficient Market Hypothesis: MicroStrategy’s $650M Bitcoin Buy Has Barely Been Priced In
Bitcoin price is making an attempt to get back over $18,000 after it flirted with the mid-$17,000 range in the overnight hours. The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has only bled further over the last several days since MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor revealed his company’s plans to offer convertible senior notes to raise $650 million in proceeds to buy Bitcoin with.
Whales of such proportion and size rarely reveal their position-taking plans beforehand, making the news notable. However, the market has yet to price in such an enormous piece of information. It has one early crypto supporter to question is efficient market theory. Here’s what that means, and why the market has yet to respond to information regarding the sudden, substantial demand.
Bitcoin Price Declines As Corporate Treasury Whale Publicly Announces Increase In Position Size
The Nasdaq-listed software firm MicroStrategy set off the initial wave of corporate buying of the first-ever cryptocurrency. Jack Dorsey’s Square Inc followed suit shortly thereafter, sparking a wave of FOMO in Q4.
The domino effect took Bitcoin from retesting $10,000 to a new all-time high in one fell swoop. The $10,000 up-move took only a handful of months, but it put the crypto asset on the radar of major players for the first time.
Related Reading | From FOMO To Overbought: Why Bitcoin Is Overdue For A Steep Correction
Since the initial shift in sentiment toward using the asset as a store of value and hedge against inflation caused the breakout bullish impulse in the first place, then why hasn’t the fact that Saylor has raised enough funds to purchase another $650 million worth of BTC barely had an impact?
Bitcoin has only dropped on the news a whale is increasing its position so sizably | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Why Isn’t The Crypto Market Pricing In New Demand Information As Supply Struggles Persist?
$650 million worth of Bitcoin at current prices represents over 36,000 BTC – a whale-sized position by crypto standards. The capital is enough to beat out any cryptocurrency’s entire market cap from rank 39 and below, to put things into perspective.
The fact that the crypto market has yet to price in such information, has Nic Carter questioning “efficient market theory.” According to Wikipedia, efficient market theory, in a nutshell, is the idea that asset prices currently reflect all available information.
But Saylor has made his intent to buy such a large sum of Bitcoin a completely public and pre-planned affair, yet the price per BTC has declined since.
Related Reading | “Most Profitable Buy Signal” Triggers As Bitcoin Consolidates Below ATH
However, there could be a few reasons for this. Despite the fact that Bitcoin has real inherent value, its price is primarily driven by speculation, and a fair market value is extremely difficult to establish.
Essentially, because the crypto investor base believes that Bitcoin will almost certainly reach prices of $100,000 or more next year and beyond, that information got priced in well ahead of Saylor’s display, resulting in the cryptocurrency’s rally becoming overheated too quickly.
FOMO caused a powerful bullish impulse because people have very little idea how to price this asset currently. Due to this, selloffs become just as severe quickly. Trends in speculative assets can overextend in both directions.
Another theory is that investors are viewing Saylor’s “all-in” type approach to Bitcoin a bit reckless considering the uncertainty that still remains surrounding the asset.
Regulation could soon become a factor, quantum computers are in development that could make the cryptography protecting Bitcoin less secure, and more. In essence, MicroStrategy itself is also speculating on Bitcoin, and speculation in the business world isn’t always the safest and most sound (micro) strategy.
Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com